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Thread: Nice to be ahead in tiebreakers

  1. #1
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    Default Nice to be ahead in tiebreakers

    Because the Titans tied the Texans at the end of last year and missed the playoffs, I continue to play close attention to tiebreakers.

    Here are the tiebreakers between two teams in the division
    Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    Strength of victory.
    Strength of schedule.
    Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best net points in common games.
    Best net points in all games.
    Best net touchdowns in all games.
    Coin toss


    The Titans finished 0-2 against the Colts and 1-1 against the Jags and Texans last year. So we couldn't win head-to-head. This year, the Titans are already 1-0 against the Jags.

    Last year, the Titans finished 2-4 in the division. That put us at the bottom tied with Jacksonville. Right now, we are 1-0, ahead of everyone else. The goal is to get 4-2 at a minimum, with 6-0 still possible.

    Last year, the Titans beat the Dolphins and the Browns for the 2nd and 3rd wins of the year. While they were great wins, they were "uncommon" games, and knocked the Titans out of any chance to win the common games tiebreaker (#3 tiebreaker). This year, we are 0-1 in "uncommon" games, which gives the Titans a chance for that tiebreaker (the other game is the Dolphins). In short, losing uncommon games increases the chances of winning the common games tiebreaker.

    With the Seattle game coming up, I do expect the Titans to win, but a loss can help the 4th tiebreaker, conference games. The Titans 3-1 non-conference record last year meant that we were only 6-6 in conference games. Non-conference losses are the 2nd best losses next to uncommon games.

    There is still a ton of football to be played, but by the time the Titans lost to the Colts in week 7 last year, it was clear that they had almost no shot at winning any tiebreakers in the division. Hopefully this year's team wins the division by multiple games, but it is nice to see that tiebreakers are falling our way already.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    Yvette (09-19-2017)

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    Im just glad we dont have an NBA team. You guys would be hyperventilating 10 games in. ��
    Drawing a blank, aren't you ?

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    309 is very enthusiastic. :-D
    Whiz: "Obviously, we are very disappointed" ..

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    After three weeks:

    1. Titans 2-1, 1-0 in division, 1-1 in conference, 0-1 in uncommon games
    2. Jaguars 2-1, 1-1 in division, 2-1 in conference, 0-0 in uncommon games
    3. Colts 1-2, 0-0 in division, 1-1 in conference, 0-0 in uncommon games
    4. Texans 1-2, 0-1 in division, 1-2 in conference, 0-1 in uncommon games

    The Texans game this week is another huge divisional showdown. The Texans would be ahead of us in the standings if they win, and the Titans would be in great shape with a 2-0 divisional record if they can win.

    Jags play @Jets, so I expect the Jags to win. Colts play @Seahawks, and I would be shocked if the Colts beat a Seahawks team looking to bounce back.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    After four weeks:

    1. Titans 2-2, 1-1 division, 1-2 conference, 0-1 in uncommon games.
    1. Texans 2-2, 1-1 division, 2-2 conference, 0-1 in uncommon games.
    1. Jaguars 2-2, 1-1 division, 2-2 conference, 0-1 in uncommon games.
    4. Colts 1-3, 0-0 division, 1-1 conference, 0-0 in uncommon games.

    The Titans do appear to be lucky to face the Dolphins in the AFC East, since that is the weakest team right now in that division. It's an uncommon game, so a win knocks us out of any chance of winning the common games tiebreaker. But the Titans need a win more than anything.

    Losing on the road in the division sucks, but the Titans can return the favor at home. If we can just win the three division games at home, the Titans are in great shape.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    After 5 weeks:

    1. Jaguars 3-2, 1-1 division, 3-2 conference, 0-1 non-common games
    2. Texans 2-3, 1-1 division, 2-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    3. Titans 2-3, 1-1 division, 1-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    4. Colts 2-3, 0-0 division, 1-2 conference, 0-0 non-common games

    If there was anything positive to losing to Miami, it was that the Dolphins are a non-common opponent. That gives the Titans a chance to win the common games tiebreaker, and we can't lose that tiebreaker to anyone.

    The Colts game is a must win, as it has been for the last few years. Lose that game, and the Titans are in a huge hole.
    Last edited by Sect309Fan; 10-12-2017 at 05:44 AM.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    This thread gets more depressing every week
    2/3 of the world is covered in water, the other 1/3 is covered by Charles Woodson

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    I had to make a correction. The Texans are 0-2 in non-common games as well.

    The Texans right now are the Titans biggest threat in the division from a tiebreaker standpoint. We have to win division games to get ahead of them.
    Last edited by Sect309Fan; 10-12-2017 at 06:50 AM.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    With just the Titans-Colts game left in Week 6:

    1. Jaguars 3-3, 1-1 division, 3-2 conference, 0-1 non-common games
    2. Texans 3-3, 1-1 division, 3-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    3. Titans 2-3, 1-1 division, 1-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    4. Colts 2-3, 0-0 division, 1-2 conference, 0-0 non-common games

    The Rams helped us out a lot by beating the Jags today. The Titans are right back in a tie for first with a win tomorrow night, but the loser is all alone in last place.

    Houston didn't have any problems with the Browns, so the Titans should be able to beat them next Sunday (assuming Mariota is playing).
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    After week 6:

    1. Titans 3-3, 2-1 division, 2-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    2. Jaguars 3-3, 1-1 division, 3-2 conference, 0-1 non-common games
    3. Texans 3-3, 1-1 division, 3-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    4. Colts 2-4, 0-1 division, 1-3 conference, 0-0 non-common games

    Despite the two lousy games in the two previous weeks, the Titans are back in first place. There is still a long way to go, but at least there is still hope to win the division.

    For week 7, the Titans play at 0-6 Browns (could be tough, but a must win), the Jags play at the Colts (a Colts win likely helps us more), and the Texans have a bye. So the Titans could be in first place by themselves with a win.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    After week 7:

    1. Titans 4-3, 2-1 division, 3-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    2. Jaguars 4-3, 2-1 division, 4-2 conference, 0-1 non-common games
    3. Texans 3-3, 1-1 division, 3-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    4. Colts 2-5, 0-2 division, 1-4 conference, 0-0 non-common games

    The Titans remain in first place due to the head-to-head win over the Jags. Both the Titans and Jags are heading into a bye week.

    The Colts look like they are fighting for a good draft pick now and have almost no chance at the playoffs. This was their first shutout loss since 2003.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    After week 8:

    1. Titans 4-3, 2-1 division, 3-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    2. Jaguars 4-3, 2-1 division, 4-2 conference, 0-1 non-common games
    3. Texans 3-4, 1-1 division, 3-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    4. Colts 2-6, 0-2 division, 1-3 conference, 0-0 non-common games

    The Texans and Seahawks had an incredible shootout today. Both teams scored 2 TDs in the fourth quarter, with Seattle getting the last one in the final minute to win 41-38.

    The Colts looked like they were going to beat the Bengals, but a late pick 6 gave the Bengals the lead for good.

    Next week:
    Colts at Texans
    Ravens at Titans
    Bengals at Jaguars

    All three home teams should win to keep the standings intact for another week.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    After week 9:

    1. Titans 5-3, 2-1 division, 4-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    2. Jaguars 5-3, 2-1 division, 5-2 conference, 0-1 non-common games
    3. Texans 3-5, 1-2 division, 3-4 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    4. Colts 3-6, 1-2 division, 2-3 conference, 0-0 non-common games

    The Titans remain on top with the head-to-head win over the Jags.

    The Texans loss to the Colts pretty much knocks them out of the division race.

    Right now, it is just a matter of keeping pace with the Jags. We have to beat the Bengals next week.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    Big game coming up for Jaguars Sunday. The Chargers are the Jags second non-common game. A Jags win sets up a scenario where the Titans could lose to the Jags in the final game and still possibly win the division. It would require the Titans to beat both the Colts and Texans and to have the Jags lose at least one of those two games.

    In that scenario, head-to-head would be tied, division record would be tied (4-2 each), and Titans would win common games.

    If the Jags lose to the Chargers (but still lose a division game later on), then it comes down to conference record, which the Jags are leading by one. Then strength of victory. I don't like our chances to be better than the Jags in either situation.

    Note: a wild card spot is definitely in play for both the Jags and Titans. Right now the Jags are the #1 wildcard, and the Bills are #2, both at 5-3. Everyone else has a worse record.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    The Titans held on for a victory Sunday in one of the NFL's most significant playoff leverage games of the week. According to FPI, the Titans now have a 55 percent chance of making the postseason after their 23-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Had they lost, and absorbed a fourth conference loss, their chances would have fallen to 26 percent. At the moment, their Week 2 victory at Jacksonville looms large; it separates the Titans and Jaguars in these standings. The drama already is building for a Week 17 game between the teams in Nashville.
    Whiz: "Obviously, we are very disappointed" ..

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    Titans would play the Jaguars in back to back weeks (Week 17, and Wild Card Game) if the current playoff standings held through the end of the season.
    2/3 of the world is covered in water, the other 1/3 is covered by Charles Woodson

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    After week 10:

    1. Titans 6-3, 2-1 division, 5-3 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    2. Jaguars 6-3, 2-1 division, 6-2 conference, 1-1 non-common games
    3. Texans 3-6, 1-2 division, 3-4 conference, 0-2 non-common games
    4. Colts 3-7, 1-2 division, 2-4 conference, 0-0 non-common games

    The only significant difference is that the Jags won a non-common game. The Jags still need to lose to Houston or Indy to make that matter, but if they were to get upset by either team, the Titans can survive a loss to the Jags in the final game (if it causes both teams to tie).

    While the Titans can afford a loss to the Steelers on Thursday, a win puts the Titans at #2 or #3 (depending on KC) in the AFC with a head-to-head tiebreaker over the likely AFC North champions.
    Go Titans! Go Braves! Go Preds! Go Dores!

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    How about playoff seeding. Looking at the AFC and there are 5 teams clearly a Starting to separate.

    At this point, the guaranteed teams in are the Patriots/Chiefs/Steelers. After them it is the Titans and Jags, and finally the Bills. The Jags could easily win out until our showdown. The Titans have an stretch of what should be 3 easy wins (49ers, Texans, Colts) after the Steelers game (Likely loss).

    The Bills and Dolphins (who will prob lose tomorrow) are only a game back of the Titans/Jags,but have nightmare schedules for the next few weeks and they'll have losing records by the end of the month most likely.

    Behind them is an absolute mess of bad teams. The Raiders might get it together but they have a way to go. The Jets and Broncos are extreme long shots at best. After them are all trash heap teams.

    The Titans should be no worse than the 3rd or 4th seed if we go 11-5/12-4. This team might even be able to go as low as 9-7 and make it in.


    Right now, here are the team standings, and how I see things going down (barring catastrophic injuries):
    1-Steelers (7-2), Still play the Patriots at home and win it I think. Otherwise they win out. Prediction 14-2
    2-Patriots (6-2), Still play the Raiders and Steelers, but 5 of their last 6 are against their terrible division. Prediction: 13-3
    3-Chiefs (6-3), Win out, and maybe lose to the Broncos in week 17 if they rest their starters. Prediction: 13-3/12-4
    4-Titans (6-3), Lose against the Steelers, but win against the Jags (Get up by a TD or more and force Bortles to win) and Rams. Prediction: 12-4
    5-Jaguars (6-3), Win everything except the Titans game. Prediction: 12-4
    6-Bills (5-4), Lose to the Patriots 2 time, and maybe drop 1 to the Dolphins. Prediction: 10-6/9-7
    7-Dolphins (4-4), Lose to the Panthers, Lose to the Patriots 2x, lose the Bills at least once, lose to KC, and maybe lose to the Broncos and Bucs. May honestly lose out the season. Prediction: 5-11
    8-Ravens (4-5), Lose to the Steelers, lose to the Lions, Prediction: 9-7/8-8
    9-Raiders(4-5), Lose to the Patriots, Chiefs, and Eagles. Beat Cowboys, Chargers, Giants, and Broncos. Prediction: 8-8
    Teams 10-16 - Try to play spoiler and get ready for the draft.
    Last edited by Titansfan777; 11-12-2017 at 09:27 PM.
    2/3 of the world is covered in water, the other 1/3 is covered by Charles Woodson

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    It sure is nice to be reading about this stuff again.

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    At this point I just want to see them make the playoffs. Give the core players a chance to understand the urgency of that, and get used to the different atmosphere and enjoy it. I have no doubt that NE, Pittsburgh and KC are all better, so a playoff berth is the goal, and build on it for the next 2 seasons, when expectations rise.

    It will also make or break Mularkey.
    What a long strange trip it's been...

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