Looking at the schedule

[Sect309Fan]

Here is the remaining schedule:

@Bengals
Bears
Colts (TNF)
@Ravens
@Colts
Browns
@Jaguars
Lions
@Packers (SNF)
@Texans

Games we should win - Bengals, Browns (now that OBJ is out), Jaguars, Lions, Texans. If the Titans can win those games, that puts us at 10 wins.

To win the division, we need to beat the Colts at least once. The Colts do have to play the Ravens, Packers, and Raiders, and Steelers still, but the rest of their schedule is easy (besides playing us twice).

If we go 11-5 with just one division loss to the Colts, the Colts would have to go 12-4 to win the division (since they lost to the Jags already). I just don't see the Colts winning 3 of 4 from those 4 tough teams.

So the Titans are in pretty good shape right now, and they can afford to have some losses to teams like the Ravens. Now if we really want the Titans to get the number one seed, then 13-3 is likely the minimum.

While the Titans are almost assured a playoff spot under the expanded playoffs, winning the division should be the top priority.

[Sect309Fan]

While the Bengals loss was pretty bad, beating the Bears helped make up for it. The Colts lost to the Ravens (first win ever for the Ravens in Indy).

At the halfway point of the season:
Titans 6-2 overall, 2-0 in the division, 4-2 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Bills)
Colts 5-3 overall, 0-1 in the division, 2-3 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Jets)

If the Titans can just split against the Colts (play them 2 of the next 3 weeks) an beat the Texans and Jags (both still look terrible), and win one more, that puts the Titans an 10-6, with the Colts needing to win 2 of 3 between the Packers, Raiders, and Steelers to pass the Titans. If the Titans can win one more to get to 11-5, the Colts would have to sweep all 3 (and not lose any others).

I still think the Titans should be able to beat the Jags, Texans, Browns, and Lions. I also think the Titans should do fine against the Colts, since their offense just isn't that great. The goal right now is win the division, and then worry about seeding later.

[Sect309Fan]

At the 10 game mark:
Titans 7-3 overall, 2-1 in the division, 5-3 in the conference, 2-0 in uncommon games (Bills, Broncos)
Colts 7-3 overall, 1-1 in the division, 3-3 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Jets)

Colts have the head-to-head tiebreaker for now. As before, if the Titans can win next Sunday and split the series, the Titans will have the tiebreaker assuming they beat the Texans and Jags. So the game is almost a must-win if the Titans want to win the South for the first time since 2008.

But let's say the Titans lose and have to compete for the wild card:
Titans right now are in first place for the wild card
Browns are next at 7-3 overall and 4-3 in the conference
Raiders, Ravens, and Dolphins are all at 6-4.

The Titans are in good shape for the wild card, and if they can at least win their games against losing teams (Lions, Jags, Texans), they will have 10 wins. The Browns game looms large in two weeks to get another tiebreaker in order.

If the Titans can win the South, that win over the Bills becomes important. Bills are also 7-3, and a tie would make the Titans the #3 seed. It is highly unlikely now that the Titans can get either of the top 2 seeds.

[Sect309Fan]

Awesome win today!!! The big thing now is either beat the Texans and Jags OR hope the Colts lose one of the games to them (Texans x2, Jags)

Titans 8-3 overall, 3-1 in the division, 6-3 in the conference, 2-0 in uncommon games (Bills, Broncos)
Colts 7-4 overall, 1-2 in the division, 3-4 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Jets) (Raiders left to play)

If the Titans just beat the Texans, Jags, and Lions, it would put us at 11-5. The Colts would have to win out to win the division, and they have the @Texans, @Raiders, Texans, @Steelers, and Jags to finish the season. They are going to lose at least one of those.
If the Titans can also beat either the Browns (who barely beat the Jags) or the Packers (who lost to the Colts), the Titans lead could be insurmountable.

It would be nice to get the #3 seed, so we need to keep up with the Bills. Bills have @49ers, Steelers, @Broncos, @Patriots, and Dolphins. I doubt they go undefeated, but they could go 12-4.

[Sect309Fan]

The Texans' Will Fuller has been suspended 6 games (the rest of the season, plus game 1 next year) for a PED violation. He has 8 TDs this year, while no one else on the team has more than 3. It just sucks because the Texans play the Colts twice over the next three weeks, and I think they had a decent chance to win one of those game with Fuller in the lineup. Brandin Cooks has about the same number of catches and yards, so he will likely be the main focus, but having one great target is a whole lot easier to defend than two.

We don't play the Texans till the final game of the season, so it is hard to know whether the game will be meaningful or not.

[Toronto]

Awesome win today!!! The big thing now is either beat the Texans and Jags OR hope the Colts lose one of the games to them (Texans x2, Jags)

Titans 8-3 overall, 3-1 in the division, 6-3 in the conference, 2-0 in uncommon games (Bills, Broncos)
Colts 7-4 overall, 1-2 in the division, 3-4 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Jets) (Raiders left to play)

If the Titans just beat the Texans, Jags, and Lions, it would put us at 11-5. The Colts would have to win out to win the division, and they have the @Texans, @Raiders, Texans, @Steelers, and Jags to finish the season. They are going to lose at least one of those.
If the Titans can also beat either the Browns (who barely beat the Jags) or the Packers (who lost to the Colts), the Titans lead could be insurmountable.

It would be nice to get the #3 seed, so we need to keep up with the Bills. Bills have @49ers, Steelers, @Broncos, @Patriots, and Dolphins. I doubt they go undefeated, but they could go 12-4.

It really doesn't matter if you're a 3 or 4 seed. You'll have to beat KC and Pittsburgh back to back on the road in 8 days. Will not be easy.

[Sect309Fan]

The Titans still lead the division due to the division record. Yesterday was a heartbreaker having the Titans miracle comeback fall short and the Texans fumbling the ball on a bad snap when they were in great position to take the lead in the final minute.

If the Titans beat the Jags and Texans, the Colts would have to win 3 of 4 (and they have the Raiders and Steelers left, as well as Jags and Texans) to win the division.

If the Titans beat the Jags, Lions, and Texans, the Colts would have to win all 4 games to pass us.

If the Titans win out, we win the division no matter what.


What we don't want to to see is the Titans win the next 3 and lose to Texans while the Colts lose to the Raiders and win out. Colts would win the common games tiebreaker. If you switch the Raiders for the Steelers, then it would come down to strength of victory (we should have the edge, but it would be close).

So a lot of things can happen these next four weeks. Titans just need to take care of business against losing teams.

[Sect309Fan]

The Bills-Steelers game tonight seems to be no-win for the Titans. If the Bills win, then the Titans will likely be best the #4 seed, and the Chiefs have a great shot at #1. If the Steelers win, then they regain the #1 seed, while the Titans move up to #3 (which means the Chiefs are #2 and would play us in the 2nd round).

It still looks like a Steelers win gives the Titans more options to avoid KC in the playoffs early on. The Bills could still pass us to be #3 or the Steelers could fall to #2. A Bills makes it much harder to avoid the Chiefs.

The Raiders are down 10 to the Colts in the third quarter. While a Colts win makes it harder to win the division, it does make gaining a playoff spot a little easier. A Browns win over the Ravens does as well.

[Sect309Fan]

Bills remaining schedule: @Broncos, @Patriots, Dolphins. They aren't terrible teams, and the Dolphins are fighting for a playoff spot. But for the Titans to catch pass them, the Bills need to lose one and the Titans win out, or the Bills lose 2 while the Titans lose 1 (and hope the Colts somehow lose a game).

Getting the #3 seed is the difference between possibly reaching the AFC Championship game or falling in the 2nd round. I think the Chiefs are going to be the #1 seed, and I see no way the Titans defense as it is having any chance in that game. But we could beat the Steelers.

If the Browns beat the Ravens tonight, the Titans will clinch a playoff spot with 2 more wins OR 1 win and a loss by the Raiders and Ravens (not including tonight).

[Sect309Fan]

After last night's game, the AFC playoff picture (in terms of teams) is pretty clear.

Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, Browns, Titans, Colts, and Ravens are all going to make it. Even though the Ravens are just 8-5, they have the Jags, Giants, and Bengals left, so they should win out.

The real battle is between the Dolphins and the Raiders. They play each other in week 16, and the winner likely is the 7th team.