Looking at the schedule

[Sect309Fan]

Here is the remaining schedule:

@Bengals
Bears
Colts (TNF)
@Ravens
@Colts
Browns
@Jaguars
Lions
@Packers (SNF)
@Texans

Games we should win - Bengals, Browns (now that OBJ is out), Jaguars, Lions, Texans. If the Titans can win those games, that puts us at 10 wins.

To win the division, we need to beat the Colts at least once. The Colts do have to play the Ravens, Packers, and Raiders, and Steelers still, but the rest of their schedule is easy (besides playing us twice).

If we go 11-5 with just one division loss to the Colts, the Colts would have to go 12-4 to win the division (since they lost to the Jags already). I just don't see the Colts winning 3 of 4 from those 4 tough teams.

So the Titans are in pretty good shape right now, and they can afford to have some losses to teams like the Ravens. Now if we really want the Titans to get the number one seed, then 13-3 is likely the minimum.

While the Titans are almost assured a playoff spot under the expanded playoffs, winning the division should be the top priority.

[Sect309Fan]

While the Bengals loss was pretty bad, beating the Bears helped make up for it. The Colts lost to the Ravens (first win ever for the Ravens in Indy).

At the halfway point of the season:
Titans 6-2 overall, 2-0 in the division, 4-2 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Bills)
Colts 5-3 overall, 0-1 in the division, 2-3 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Jets)

If the Titans can just split against the Colts (play them 2 of the next 3 weeks) an beat the Texans and Jags (both still look terrible), and win one more, that puts the Titans an 10-6, with the Colts needing to win 2 of 3 between the Packers, Raiders, and Steelers to pass the Titans. If the Titans can win one more to get to 11-5, the Colts would have to sweep all 3 (and not lose any others).

I still think the Titans should be able to beat the Jags, Texans, Browns, and Lions. I also think the Titans should do fine against the Colts, since their offense just isn't that great. The goal right now is win the division, and then worry about seeding later.

[Sect309Fan]

At the 10 game mark:
Titans 7-3 overall, 2-1 in the division, 5-3 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Bills)
Colts 7-3 overall, 1-1 in the division, 3-3 in the conference, 1-0 in uncommon games (Jets)

Colts have the head-to-head tiebreaker for now. As before, if the Titans can win next Sunday and split the series, the Titans will have the tiebreaker assuming they beat the Texans and Jags. So the game is almost a must-win if the Titans want to win the South for the first time since 2008.

But let's say the Titans lose and have to compete for the wild card:
Titans right now are in first place for the wild card
Browns are next at 7-3 overall and 4-3 in the conference
Raiders, Ravens, and Dolphins are all at 6-4.

The Titans are in good shape for the wild card, and if they can at least win their games against losing teams (Lions, Jags, Texans), they will have 10 wins. The Browns game looms large in two weeks to get another tiebreaker in order.

If the Titans can win the South, that win over the Bills becomes important. Bills are also 7-3, and a tie would make the Titans the #3 seed. It is highly unlikely now that the Titans can get either of the top 2 seeds.